Transition Town Louth, Lincolnshire.

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Icy thoughts

350, Wave, 10:10, COP15, campaigns, demonstrations, actions, conferences, can it get you down? Sometimes amidst all the fuss it’s worth taking stock of what it’s all about. Three pieces of news caught my attention this week.

First the daily report from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre showed that refreezing of the Arctic Ocean was exceptionally slow this autumn. The mid-November area of sea ice is now lower than it has ever been since before the last Ice Age.

Second, there was the publication by Michiel van den Broeke, et al. of Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss Science 326, 984 (2009). (Abstarct here. Let me know if you would like to read the full text.) The paper reports on measurements of the rate of ice loss from Greenland. The steady melting observed earlier this decade has increased dramatically during the last couple of years – since the IPCC’s report upon which so much governmental discussion rests.

And third, Mauri Pelto explains on RealClimate how the Pine Island Glacier (PIG), which drains much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), is grounded on the sub-sea rock floor but that this grounding line is retreating. This represents ‘the weak underbelly’ of the WAIS. As it retreats further the vast mass of the ice sheet, which actually rest on land well below sea level will have less to hold it back. Observations now show that the PIG, long regarded as stable, is now moving ever faster, with rapid acceleration in the last couple of years.

To investigate ice conditions further NASA’s Operation Ice Bridge has been sending flights over this area for the last couple of weeks. Reports and spectacular pictures can be found at their website with regular updates on twitter.

Ok, so none of this is going to cause a catastrophe tomorrow, but when one looks at our beautiful medieval churches on the Marsh and thinks on a timescale that references the timelessness of the landscape our grandchildren should inherit, one realises the importance of 350, Wave, 10:10, COP15 and all that fuss. ~ Biff

Co-housing

How about this for an idea? Something I've been dreaming of for many years now.

Co-housing is centred around the idea people needing the privacy of their own living accommodation but benefiting from a shared facilities such as Common House with regular shared meals. To begin with, a group of like-minded families and individuals who wish to live in co-housing, come together to design their living environment, from principles such as eco-housing to facilities such as shared laundry, playground or teen room, to practicalities such as location and financing. Co-housing is based on the successful and well studied Danish model. Successful Co-housing has 13-30 dwellings and is pedestrian friendly with cars kept together at the edge of the development. Benefits include coming home from work/school once a week to a meal cooked for you and shared with friends, strong friendships and support networks and lower divorce rates. Mikyla

Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP)

With crude oil prices plummeting from over $140 last July to the $40 seen in December 2008, one might be forgiven for wondering what the talk about Peak Oil was all about. Let’s take stock.

Since late 2004 the rate of production of conventional crude oil has been essentially on a plateau at about 73 million barrels per day. A peak of just over 74mb/d was reached in May 2005 and only surpassed in the spring and summer of 2008. In July the rate reached just shy of 75mb/d before dropping precipitously.

Earlier this year it might not have been unreasonable to expect Peak Oil still to be a few years away. Despite ominous signs from the USA economy, global economic growth was still creating demand that was not easily being met. With sweet light oil being pumped at maximum and refinery capacity for heavy sour crudes, of which there may still have been some small surplus from Saudi Arabia, being limited, prices were relentlessly moving upwards towards the now oft-quoted figure of $147. Traders were justified in expecting demand not to be destroyed at that level. Several major oil finds were being developed, notably in the Caspian region, new refinery capacity was being built, unconventional oils such as the Athabasca tar sands were, at these prices, becoming worth exploiting and the production rate looked as though it could rise a little further yet. The talk was whether Peak Oil would be within three years or a still a little further out.

But then the world woke up to the enormity of the banking disaster. Demand for oil slipped as industries, already wary of the high oil prices, had their financial foundations pulled from beneath them. It only took a small drop in demand for production rate to be greater than the consumption rate. There is only so much storage capacity and once full the price has to drop. Precipitously.

OPEC has cut its production in the face of this demand destruction and low price. Low prices give a disincentive to industry to invest in new exploration and production so that if and when the global economy recovers, industry starts burning fuel again and oil demand rises, we will very soon find a physical limit on supply, dictated by geology and the extant production infrastructure. With hindsight, we will see that Peak Oil, the moment of maximum rate of production, happened back in July 2008 and that the newly soaring prices will but a brake on economic growth, eased only by our ability to use energy more efficiently and to substitute renewable energy sources for the oil that is lacking.

So let’s not be lulled into complacency by the current low price of oil. The energy security issue is real, is massive, and is imminent. We may now be in the post Peak Oil era and we need to manage our energy descent.

An Energy Descent Action Plan is a pressing need.

The Archbishop's Opinion

Rowan Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury, was interviewd by James Macintyre for the New Stateman published on 18th December 2008.

Williams is concerned that anxiety about the "credit crunch" could distract from the wider fight against extreme poverty. "When you have this kind of crisis the people at the bottom of the heap nationally and internationally are the ones who suffer most. There will be real insecurity for people who have been used to secure jobs [here] and I think the tougher thing will be to set that real hardship against the life-threatening hardship that faces the poorer parts of the world."

And according to the the Guradian:

The credit crunch is a welcome "reality check" in a climate of unsustainable greed, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, said today. Williams hit out at Gordon Brown's plans to combat recession by boosting spending, which he compared to an "addict returning to the drug".

Climate Talks, Poland

Dear friends,

While the world's attention is elsewhere, the global negotiations to tackle the climate crisis are reaching a crunch point. Talks are underway in Poland and Brussels to hammer out a deal that should lead to a new and powerful global treaty. But now, Italy, Germany, and Poland itself are aggressively undermining the talks.

If these countries' leaders -- Merkel, Berlusconi and Tusk -- don't change course now, Europe will fail to reach a unified position, which could unravel the entire global process.

Here at the Poland UN conference and at the EU talks in Brussels, Avaaz has secured face-to-face meetings with key climate negotiators. We'll hand the diplomats fresh public opinion polls on climate plus this petition: A bold EU climate package is critical to the global climate negotiations. Europe must honour their promise to increase binding, carbon-cutting commitments to at least 30% by 2020 if a global deal is reached; and provide leadership in the United Nations talks to deliver a powerful new global agreement.

For the last year, the US, Canada, and Japan have been the worst obstructionists in climate talks -- as more than 300,000 of us helped expose in Bali. But now, Bush, Fukuda and Harper are gone or heading out the door. A breakthrough could be near as we approach the final stretch... if only Europe weren't on the verge of abandoning its ambitious climate program.

Coal and heavy industry lobbies are using the financial crisis as a smokescreen to block progress. Due to Germany, Italy, and Poland, the European Union is deadlocked in Brussels -- and ineffective at the United Nations talks. We must succeed this week to have any chance of building the road map to the final UN meeting in Copenhagen next year.

In all three countries, it's not too late. We can show these governments that their own citizens and the rest of the world will not settle for anything less than strong climate action. Avaaz is commissioning independent opinion polls on climate in all three countries, building a massive global petition for delivery in meetings and stunts at the UN and EU talks, and launching a major media campaign to shame, cajole, and encourage EU leaders to do the right thing.

Click here to add your name to the petition: Avaaz

Before Obama takes the helm, the next step in the world's response to climate change depends on European leadership. Here's what we need Europe to bring to the global table: 30% emissions cut by 2020 if a global deal is reached, 100% auctioning of permits, and a strict compliance regime to ensure targets are met. The EU's climate policy will electrify or dampen the international negotiations in Poland, while setting the stage for the final meeting in Copenhagen.

For all of us who have ever been concerned about climate change, now's the time to send a message calling for leadership and vision. By the time we reach the new year, Europe's policy will be sealed, and with it much of the global response to the climate crisis.

With determination,

Ben, Iain, Brett, Graziela, Ricken, Paula, Milena, Paul, Alice, Pascal -- and the rest of the Avaaz team

ADAS report on the Cattle Market

An East Lindsey report on the Cattle Market’s livestock business has just been delivered by consultancy ADAS.

East Lindsey’s response, given in a written answer is as follows:

The findings of the report confirm that the current livestock market is not sustainable in economic terms and that the market no longer contributes significantly to the local economy.

That is nonsense. It isn’t what the report says at all. Here is Keep Louth Special’s reading of the report.

The ADAS report shows not only that Louth Cattle Market is an important contributor to the local economy, with £5.5m contributed over a 25-year period, but that it would not be difficult to get an increased level of attendance from farmers in the future. Fully 32% of those who do not use the market now said they were likely to, or would definitely, use it in future.

Clearly some vigour and imagination is required to bring the best out of livestock auctions for the benefit of the local and farming communities. This could include changing market day back to a Friday to dovetail with the town's existing market, adding agricultural equipment, fencing and tack sales, encouraging spin-off businesses relating to agriculture and modifying the existing buildings for multi-use purposes. Above all, a concerted effort to attract fresh buyers to raise the prices that farmers receive for their sheep and cattle is vital.

We would like to work with East Lindsey and the farming community to show how some relatively modest and inexpensive changes could yet boost the cattle market back to profitability. For that reason we urge ELDC not to rush to judgment. Louth's cattle market has been active for many hundreds of years, and is a kingpin in the local area's sustainability. It most certainly has had hard times before and come through them because of support by the local community. More than 81% of the people of Louth want a cattle market to stay on that site, so it is the responsibility of ELDC to work with all parties to ensure that this vital facility is retained.

A New Supermarket

The most important consideration regarding discussions on a new supermarket in Louth is the one of its economic benefits to the area.

Supermarkets do not join a local economic community; they belong to businesses that operate on a scale that generates their own nationwide economy. When their doors first open their managers identify and eliminate the trade competition, by waging aggressive price wars especially on specialised food and grocery retailers. If a town is without its food shops it loses much of its attractiveness to shoppers. The more specialized the retailers the quicker the fight tends to be, so wave goodbye to butchers, cheese, fish and poultry shops.

The argument that a supermarket draws custom and money into a town is irrational. The mass of supermarket products are not locally or even regionally sourced. Profits from their turnover go to central company headquarters, nowhere near Louth. By contrast small local shops furnish the pockets of local owners who spend locally. In the run up to Christmas, for example, a big supermarket will therefore remove roughly £500,000 a week from the local economy, money that is drawn from a very wide area of villages and the town. This is a critical point in the supermarket debate; it has profound, widespread economic effects that the small businesses of a rural area cannot absorb. Everyone suffers in a local economy when the goods and services in an area close. It has to be understood that supermarkets operate on an economic scale at odds with delicately balanced, slowly evolved, interwoven local economics.

Employment: supermarkets are not good employers or good payers. They offer short term (often 6 month) contracts. The turnover of staff is enormously quick. Contrast this with the regular faces that you see in local shops year after year.

There are two true winners who have money riding on the arrival of the supermarket, however. The supermarket chain is one, of course. In the towns where I have lived that have stumbled blindly into welcoming such a ravenous business into its midst a great deal of outraged investigating is done by the locals in the aftermath. In every instance it is discovered that the other net recipients are the local authorities.

ELDC’s accounts department have made a calculation that that the rates and services revenue, plus the ‘improvement scheme’ backhanders that the authority may obtain from the supermarket up front will outweigh the revenue currently collected from the market and from the local shops that are likely to close.

The bottom line is that ELDC and every government service nationally has spiralling costs that have for some time outstripped the capacity of the already hardworking population to pay for by taxes. In Louth, if the electorate refuse to pay more council tax and higher rates and the ELDC (and all the other local government funded bodies) are not competent enough to reign in their spending they are forced to get into bed with big business. There is huge evidence in our economic crisis that the marriage of government and big business is complete to the exclusion of the needs of the voter.

But what this area needs in these tough financial times is an enormous injection of capital into the local economy, a substantial new employer, for example. A whole range of businesses will not survive a huge migration of capital out of the area that a supermarket would bring about. The last thing we need to hear in the run up to this bleak looking Christmas is that that local authority have washed their hands of us.

James Gillick

Farmers market.

The problem: Every farmer separately has to pack a van and travel individually to Louth, or elsewhere. That’s 20-80 mile roundtrips, fuel, staff costs etc. The layout of the market means that setting out, packing up, and protecting against pilfering require a person per stall.

This means that you need a lot of customers to justify attendance at the markets which is now, I am told, in something of a downward spiral. Once some stalls go, the draw for customers slips and everyone is affected.

Instead of a downward spiral, you need a virtuous circle, which will mean that everyone knows when the farmers market is, and can be confident that a wide selection of goods will be on display, and will attend.

Several ideas:

1) Set up a loose co-op to take a short-lease on one of the small empty shops in Louth. Have a permanent set of decorative tables, one per farm/shop, with all the goods laid out, and a refrigerated cabinet. Meat is already shrink-wrapped. Vegetables are bagged.

Requires one member of staff, and one delivery every day, by a driver who services all the regular stallholders. That’s two people, addressing Louth’s needs five days a week. That has to be cheaper than 7-8 individuals each running a vehicle for one day. Better still, unsold goods can be held on the premises overnight.

A bar-code, or till code system, will be required to keep track of whose good are being sold, and a method of figuring out the allocation of costs. A clearing house for stock...

A crating system for quick loading and unloading and laying out would make this easier.

If the shop stayed open until 7pm one day a week a whole new market could be addressed, that of working families.

2) A large square stall staffed by two people, working exactly like the system above, but without the cost of a shop lease.

Separaterly, we need the council to install lampost mounted flags/signs which give the days of the week that the markets are open, as a reminder to all shoppers, and a website address where the lists of attending stalls can be seen.

What ELDC can do to help market?

Fund signs high on lamposts which say what days ordinary and farmers markets are on.

Fund some multi-coloured roofs for the stalls. Yellow and purple, red and green, blue. Cost would be a few hundred pounds, but effect immediate. Look at the continental markets (both here and abroad).

Work more closely with stallholders (who themselves should form a working group)

Stallholders should have a contact list....we can keep it on our website. Either e-mail or phone.

Taking Stock of the Oil Price

We’ve been talking about Peak Oil and saying that the price of oil can only rise, yet now we have crude prices at less than half where they were in July. What is going on?

The production rate of conventional crude climbed until May 2005 but then levelled off. Total oil production continued to increase slowly as unconventional oils, such as the Canadian tar sands, and biofuels came on stream.

Over the past several years the total money supply, including loans created by the fractional banking system, has increased at an unprecedented rate. The increased money supply has allowed the price of crude oil to rise at a rate of about 30% per year for the last few years. This price increase, well above the marginal cost of production, has not been met by a proportionate increase of supply.

Constant demand from the developed world and increased demand from countries such as China, India and Brazil in the face of rising prices and little increase in production has resulted in demand destruction in the poorer nations, particularly in Africa.

The more or less level production of conventional oil in the face of rising prices since May 2005 indicates that it has not been physically possible to increase production, except, perhaps, of heavy sour oils for which there was insufficient refining capacity. Rising oil prices have stimulated exploration and development of harder to get oils, promising a peak in production rate still a few years off.

The credit crunch and ensuing financial crisis have dramatically reduced the total money supply, triggering a world wide recession. Demand for oil has dropped slightly with further demand reduction forecast, so the price of crude has, since its peak in July2008, dropped by more than half.

This lower price, the economic outlook and reduced money supply available for loans, have combined to reduce the incentive for investment in oil exploration and development of the harder to get oils. Increased production over the next few years now seems less likely, constrained more by above ground factors than geology. It is even possible that August 2008 may eventually prove to be the month of peak oil production rate.

If and when growth resumes in the global economy, an increased demand for oil will not be met, as the opportunity for production infrastructure investment will have been missed. The price of crude will again rise to the level that the economy will bear, but without a matching rise in production.

Although the price may be volatile, oil will be increasingly hard to afford. The need for substitution of oil by renewable energy sources is as urgent as ever. For economic growth to be maintained the efficiency with which all energy sources are used must be increased.
Biff Vernon

Home Town or Clone Town?

The Clone Town Britain Survey II is designed to determine whether a town has become a Clone Town increasingly indistinguishable from dozens of others around the country; or whether it survives as a Home Town, distinctive and recognisable as a unique place.

The Clone Town Britain Index measures both the identity and diversity of outlets on the core of the high street. It weights more for identity because ownership is critical to the health of the local economy and community. But diversity is important, and so is also included. Towns scoring below 50 on the scale are classified as Clone Towns. Over half of the stores counted are chains, and there is little diversity. Towns scoring over 65 are classified as Home Towns, where almost two thirds or more of the stores are independent, and there is a wide range of outlets. In between are ‘Border Towns,’ which are neither highly homogenised, nor strongly independent and diverse.

Louth has an index of 75 and is therefore classified as a Home Town, still special for it's diversity of independant shops.

More information about the New Economics Foundation Clone Town Britain survey

Supermarkets

Along with opposing the building of a new supermarket in Louth I think a major factor which could keep Louth special is support for existing businesses, and advice on how they can focus on their strengths as individual retailers. They have qualities that a supermarket cannot compete with, although these qualities are not always maximised by the local businesses.

Have you ever tried to get a particular product you want to buy onto a supermarket shelf?
Have you ever tried to get a supermarket to save you a particular product for the day you will be coming in to town to do your shopping?
How about the customer service, do supermarket staff know about the products they sell,know where they are from and what ingredients they contain?
And what about local knowledge, can the supermarket staff tell you about other businesses in the area?
Has anything you have ever said to a supermarket ever made a difference without having to 'talk to head office'?
Have you tried buying something produced from a very local business from a national supermarket chain?

These are areas that local businesses can do because of their size, areas they can focus on to make their businesses more resilient to the threat of competition from another supermarket, and also to improve as individual retailers in general. Some shops do this already some shops do not.

I am all for stopping the cattle market being turned into a giant supermarket, and would love to see a large market garden, and produce trading market there. However, there is a chance that there will be a large supermarket built on that site and we need a plan B in case the valiant efforts of the Keep Louth Special team are in vain. As I said, even if the supermarket does not get built, focusing on local businesses strengths and qualities will only improve the quality of Louths local shops and will definitely be energy and time spent wisely.
Nick

The Oil Crunch - Securing the UK's energy future
This is a report produced by the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil ans Energy Security. The Memeber companies comprise Arup, FirstGroup, Foster and Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group, Virgin Group and Yahoo!
It shows that some of our leading companies now take the reality of Peak Oil with the utmost seriousness.
It states:

I have collated the results of our Big Question asked at the 26th October Market.
To my surprise there were literally only 6 issues raised. They fell into the following groups.

Produce more food locally
This had the largest support with 34% of the total response. Ideas such as growing food on roundabouts, more allotments, plant fruit trees in public places.

Support local businesses
Again with 21%, a popular issue. The majority of these responses were directed at buying local produce, and keeping local money from leaking out of the local economy.

Reduce Transport Impact
Another popular issue with 21%. Answers ranging from flying tokens to pedestrianising Louth.

Recycling and Waste management
With 10% of the answers, including less packaging and more recycling.

Support local creativity
Again with 10%, a few ideas were, encourage walking as a form of entertainment, and promote alternatives to watching TV.

Promote renewable energy
With 3% of comments. Create energy from local biomass was the main theme.

So what can we learn from these results?
My opinion is that the first two main issues go some way to addressing the third. Produce local food, sell it locally, then you automatically reduce transport impact.
Please feel free to mail back ideas, comments, etc. Let me know what you think.
Cheers Nick

Training for Transition is a 2-day "fundamentals" course for those wishing to know how to set up, run, and maintain a successful transition initiative. It is packed with imaginative and inspiring ways to delve into both the theory and practice of Transition - check out the full details regarding content here.
The Transition network will be running a training weekend on the 21st and 22nd March 2009 in Lincoln. Lincoln will act as a hub for transition groups in the Lincolnshire/Nottinghamshire area. The charge will be £50 for the weekend which will cover the training and venue costs. This is half the recommended cost charged as the City of Lincoln Council are subsidising the course. We have provisionally arranged to hold the training at the new Healthy Hub on Beaumont Fee but will confirm this nearer the time.
If you would like to reserve a place please let me know. I have been informed by the transition network that these courses are always oversubscribed as people come from all over the country to attend, so places could be limited.
Kate Bell, Community Environment Coordinator, City of Lincoln Council,01522 873311

Money as Debt
Here is a video that explains in a clear, entertaining, and frightening way, just how our financial system got to be where it is, why it is incompatible with the transition to a sustianable future and what the alternative is. This film will actually allow you to understand what is going on.

Supermarket work stoppped in Penrith
Here's an article from the Cumberland News.
It seems that work of a new Sainsbury in Penrith has stopped as a result of the financial crisis.
Maybe the credit crunch will mean that there will not be such a rush to get another supermarket built in Louth. Perhaps the Cattle Market should not be sold in the near future, when we may be near the bottom of the development land market. To lose money in Iceland and then lose more by an ill-timed sale might be deemed carelessness.

Supermarket on the Cattle Market?

Here are three vital documents. The ELDC report on the stages by which they expect the Cattle Market to become a supermarket. The FOE documents Campaigning against Supermarkets and Effect on Community. They are all worth reading to the end!
Nick Louth

The Transition Movie: A Call For Creative People! In the spirit of collaborative working that sits at the heart of the Transition movement, we are planning “The Transition Movie” as a 50 minute broadcast-quality documentary which reflects the movement itself. We are inviting people involved in Transition Initiatives to share their successes, failures and extraordinary events and breakthroughs through the medium of film, in other words we need you.
Find out about it here.

The Keep Louth Special website is now up and running.
This is the group campaigning to stop the Cattle Market being used for a new supermarket.
The press launch was on Saturday 25th October and scooped the front page of The Leader!

Draft statement of ethos for the Keep Louth Special group.

• Louth’s unique collection of small independent shops and its open market must be protected against the threat of a giant new supermarket.


• Market Rasen has already lost its covered food market since Tesco arrived in 2005 and local food and convenience stores have seen 20-50% falls in sales.


• If ELDC decides to sell the cattle market site for a giant new supermarket, exactly the same will happen to Louth.


• That will mean lost jobs, lost skills, empty shops, noisy night-time deliveries and a loss of character. The town centre would die. Property values would sink.


• Louth IS worth saving. While most of the country’s clone towns are dull replicas of each other, Louth is unique. Where else do the local retail names outnumber the national chains?


• Louth’s historic connection with local farm produce means low food miles and the ultimate in sustainability and traceability. This is perfect for a Fairtrade town, and good for local jobs too.


• Architectural and retail heritage go hand in hand. Louth’s wonderful Georgian and Victorian shops would look sad if all they housed were charity shops, mobile phone outlets and burger bars.


• ELDC must ditch its flawed retail policy and take responsibility for nurturing the gem within its grasp.


• Make your voice heard. We need everyone in Louth and the surrounding villages to write to their councillors and their MP to demand that no new supermarkets be built.


• Use them or lose them. Above all, it is up to us to use the small shops to keep the town healthy and thriving.

Nick Louth

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