Dr David Fleming

Our friend and inspiration, Dr. David Fleming, died last November. He will be especially missed by a Beth Barton and Beth Stratford, both of whom he met while visiting Louth and engaged to work with him on his life's project, his book Lean Logic. Many of us will remeber the lecture he delivered in the Faerie House on Transition Empowerment There will be a Memorial Service at Hampstead Parish Church on Friday 4th February 2011 at 3pm. All are welcome. Shaun Chamberlain has posted links to the many tributes to David at Dark Optimism. At the heart of the Transition Town movment is building resilience and self reliance into local communities. It is based on the profound, perhaps frightening, understanding of David's words: “Localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative.” David Fleming (1940-2010)

David Fleming discusses the working of an experimental rocket stove. August 2010.

LOCAL MONEY: how to make it happen in your community by Peter North is the latest book in the Transition series. “Whoever controls money controls our lives. Taking back that power for good, not harm, has to be at the heart of new thinking after the crash. Without change, the next one could be Armageddon. This book tells every community everywhere how to make local money work for local good.” – Polly Toynbee, Guardian columnist. “A local currency is essential for greater local resilience. Peter North’s comprehensive and well-written survey of local money systems is the best guide by far for communities planning to launch their own currency.” – Richard Douthwaite, author, The Growth Illusion and The Ecology of Money.

If you don't want to read the whole book just read this particularly informative review by Joanne Poyourow published on Energy Bulletin

Join The Big Climate Connection!

Connect in your community... Connect with your MP... Connect the issues to stop climate chaos.

The Stop Climate Chaos Coalition is calling for people across the UK to connect with others in their communities on 5th-6th November and lobby their MPs. With supporters from more than 100 organisations coming together in their communities for the Big Climate Connection, we’ll show MPs that people from all walks of life – from environment to development groups, from unions to local community and health groups - are calling for action on climate change.

Donna Nook, the local community, East Lindsey District Council, the Environment Agency and the Law.

There is a scheme, proposed by the Environment Agency, to realign the coastal defences near Donna Nook. Briefly, the plan is to allow some 140 hectares of agricultural land to become saltmarsh. Within the broader Humber area saltmarsh is being lost as sea defences protecting such valuable assets as Hull, are strengthened. We have legislations that means if sea defence works result in loss of habitat in one place, similar habitat must be created nearby. This is our government’s recognition of the importance of biodiversity. The article reproduced below was published in the Guardian on 26th December 2010. The author, Dr Robert Bloomfield, is the UK co-ordinator for the International Year of Biodiversity and Head of Innovation at The Natural History Museum, London. He spells out the importance of biodiversity.

The Donna Nook scheme has been hugely controversial with a great deal of local opposition culminating in a rejection of the Environment Agency’s planning proposal by East Lindsey District Council. The EA will now appeal the decision. Opposition to the scheme is, perhaps, understandable. Why should land, wrested from the sea by our forefathers, be given back for the sake of a few wading birds in a world whose growing population will demand ever more food from dwindling high quality arable land?

When people talk of biodiversity it is tropical rainforests that often come to mind. It is easy for us to call upon folk thousands of miles away to save the planet but the Lincolnshire saltmarsh is every bit as important, a very scarce habitat that probably contains a greater diversity of species per square metre than the rainforests. And it is our direct responsibility.

Biff Vernon

Why biodiversity loss and climate change are equal threats

Our biggest ally will be lost if we do not protect and enhance biodiversity in forests and other systems

Since the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, the media and many organisations have pursued as separate narratives the issues of climate, biodiversity and sustainable development. One of the changes this year, at a UN level, has been recognition that this does not make sense. Without protecting and enhancing biodiversity in forests and other systems we are losing our biggest ally. These living systems can lock away carbon at a fraction of the price that technical solutions for carbon storage could only do at huge cost and by expending even more energy.

Fortunately, over 2010 the International Year of Biodiversity involved 1,500 organisations across 90 governments, 388 NGOs and 21 UN agencies to help raise awareness of the importance of biodiversity. The UN designated 2011-2020 the International Decade of Biodiversity. Among the agreements that came out of the UN's major biodiversity meeting in Nagoya in October were commitments from 191 nations to increase the amount of the planet set aside for biodiversity protection to 17% of the land surface and 10% of the oceans. Perhaps more importantly came increasing recognition of the economic and health cost to humanity of biodiversity loss; not the least being the $3-4bn losses per annum associated with deforestation alone. These are losses which are actually making the World Bank and government finance ministers pick up their ears, they are losses no government can sustain indefinitely.

For the most part, people have seen biodiversity as being about saving endangered species, or setting aside special natural habitats as national parks. However the truth is that biodiversity is an issue of mainstream economic importance, with consequences that are wide-ranging; from helping mitigate floods and droughts to providing a pharmacopoeia of future medicines. It is as much about how we as consumers make informed choices about the products we purchase as it is about preserving exotic animals in far away places.

This fresh perspective is at the centre of the new international agreement. All governments are called to report on the condition of their country's "natural capital assets", alongside their reports to the UN and World Bank on their economic growth and GDP. The agreement calls on all private sector organisations to look at their activities and similarly report the biodiversity impact of their corporate activities. Yet there is still a huge dislocation in the public discourse. While many scientists regard biodiversity loss as an even greater threat than climate change, when did you last hear it discussed on Channel 4 News, or see it featured on News Night or as the subject of a leader comment? (with the honourable exception of the Guardian)

The first target from Nagoya is the call for all people to understand the importance of biodiversity by 2020. Such an endeavour is no simple turning over of a new leaf, no easy New Year's resolution. The topic needs to be covered in our education curriculum at all levels. It will require the vision from responsible government and business to ensure this issue is placed at the heart of aspirations for a successful, emergent green economy. It will require a sea change of awareness among the majority of media editors and producers that this is not only of relevance to their audiences, but that it is a central news story that will run and run for the decade to come.

Dr Robert Bloomfield. Article source.

Discussion about Transition on PowerSwitch

There's an ongoing discussion on the peak oil related net forum, Powerswitch, with posters expressing a range of opinions, positive, negative and tangential. Here's one of the comments from Paul Mobbs:

I was touring the UK giving talks on PO before transition was established, a number of the early groups started after I gave talks in their area, and I've been distantly involved since then. From that experience I think you're giving the "transition" label a level of homogeneity that in reality doesn't exist. E.g., comparing the alternative currency brigade in Brixton, to the permaculturists of Easton in Bristol, to the "way out west" groups in Cornwall who couldn't afford to go to the national transition events in middle England, there is no single "transition" identity -- it's an aspirational identity. That's both it's strength, in that it allows a diversity of approaches to blossom, and its weakness, as shown by some of the spectacular group implosions (e.g. Oxford).

However, being aspirational also means that it's very easy for individuals to look on the process as a sort of coffee table discussion forum rather than a place for mutual exchange and personal development. It's very easy for groups to fall into the trap, as with the mainstream FoE/Greenpeace/WWF local groups, and let the centre do all the work and the periphery merely to sign postcards, lobby MPs and cheer/clap on cue.

Change doesn't begin by storming the barricades of political power. It begins with a struggle inside your own mind that reflects your everyday lifestyle situation/choices and the intellectual realisation that the world you see around you is an illusion based upon a complete misunderstanding of the relationship between human and planetary ecology -- in particular, the role of energy and resources in the globalised economic fetish that our "leaders and betters" fixate upon. Until you can resolve this ecological crisis within the boundaries of your own life how can you communicate that to anyone else? And in that process, I've found the role of transition groups to vary widely -- with some of the best groups able to harness that desire for personal change and direct it towards practical activities that carry the group (then again, the same is true of all sorts of other groups, from the WI to single-issue campaigns).

Perhaps the greatest problem I've come across are those who baulk at the implications of personal change, at the semi-/subconscious level, and so externalise the problem to someone else, usually politicians or other "leaders" (e.g., the transition network itself). That' the trap that most of the mainstream environmental groups fell into during their mis-guided foray into green consumerism from the early 90s -- the message of changing brands or product substitution can't possibly internalise the deeper ecological message that the progenitors of the environmental movement realised/developed in the 70s/80s. By passing the buck, in effect refuting your own capability to radically change your own life, you capitulate to the stasis agenda of the economic status quo; although I have a sneaking suspicion that many people (especially the more affluent/middle class members) do this because they can't resolve their internal dialogue -- the obvious conclusions negate the advantages that wealth and preferential educational opportunities offer within our current economic system.

Perhaps the greatest problem I think I've found to date is, related to the 'externalisation' issue noted above, a tendency for people to over-inflate the power of the opposition -- to talk up the paper tiger of "the system" in order to explain their inability to act themselves. In my workshops I often talk about the 'Serenity Prayer' as being the root of how we need to approach these seemingly insurmountable problems:

Quote: Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; Courage to change the things I can; And wisdom to know the difference.

We should not dwell on the things that we cannot change -- it is futile. To exercise our limited time, energy and resources on issues we cannot change detracts from our ability to change ourselves, or at worst is a convenient excuse for not focusing on those things that we can do. In this sense trying to "fix the food chain" (one of FoE's current campaigns) is too great an issue for the individual; instead why not just learn to cook seasonal food and set a goal of doing without supermarkets for your staple needs over the next year or two? Then, with the knowledge and understanding this process creates, we can spread our own experience to others. Something I learnt from many years working with local and national campaign groups is that a successful campaign does not need to claim moral or intellectual superiority, or to be worthy -- it just needs to make something happen! Withn the infatuation of groups for massed 'bums on seats' or the idea of there being some great untapped vanguard in favour of change, we miss the real and tangible process that the basis of societal development is simply one person communicating directly with another. In enslaving themselves to the mass media most campaign groups not only miss this deeper reality, but, confounded by the morass of rival or contrary messages, they devalue or distort their motivations to work within the agenda of/gain attention by some conceptual 'mass audience' -- change becomes a performing seal, not a transfer of knowledge and experience.

Change requires vision and a consciousness of the processes that operate around us in order to facilitate action. If I had a criticism of some elements of the transition movement it's that this truth doesn't get nearly as much emphasis within the process of change as the fear or worry over the global drivers for degradation (carbon emissions, food supply, etc.). If we stand back and look at this holistically we can see that physical reality doesn't negotiate; peak everything/limits to growth will make our present economic and political paradigm fracture and fail because, without significant change, this outcome is inevitable -- it doesn't require our intervention to make this happen, we just have to have the patience to allow that process to take place. However, the rational and moral imperative of this view is that in the meantime, whilst we wait for the inevitable, we have the responsibility to work on our own lifestyle, seeking to change those elements that we can, and then share that experience with everyone around us.

Richard Heinberg: Temporary recession or the end of growth?

Richard Heinberg: Beyond the Limits to Growth

Time to say we will

zerocarbonbritain2030 is a positive, realistic policy framework to eliminate emissions from fossil fuels within 20 years.

zerocarbonbritain2030 provides political and economic solutions to the urgent challenges raised by the climate science, outlining how we can transform the UK into an efficient, clean, prosperous zero-carbon society.

This is an important report, 384 pages, and all downoladable for free from the Centre for Alternative Technology.

The Imminent Crash Of Oil Supply: Be Afraid

Nicholas C. Arguimbau, writing for Countercurrents.org 23 April 2010, explains what this US government graph shows and what it's implications are.

We are on our own. We are rapidly going to have to deal with less and less oil, since there has been no forewarning and no planning. It is a time for communities to prepare for community energy independence, because only that way will be safe. This means relying on the sun and wind and water that have always been with us. It means cooperation with each other to get through seriously difficult times. It means finding altenatives to oil throughout our lives as quickly as possible - the oil that runs our cars, the oil that heats our houses, the oil that runs generators for our electricity, the oil from which chemical fertilizers and insecticides and plastics and polyester are made, the oil that brings countless manufactured goods to us from overseas, the oil on which farmers depend for irrigation pujmps, for transporting produce to market, for working the soil to bring us food. If you believe the graph, it will almost all be gone in 20 years.

Message from Joss Winn, Transition Lincoln

Hello Transitioners,

Like some of you, I follow oil news and I thought I'd summarise for the list, this month's (year's?) biggest news. For those of you who didn't catch it, the OECD's International Energy Agency released their annual World Energy Outlook report this month. It is a significant annual event for people that watch this area of the economy. The summary document is available here: World Energy Outlook

Significantly, they report that:

1. Stabilising at +2c by 2050 is now 'all but impossible' and that realistically, we're looking at +3.5c increase in global average temperature. The implications of this (food, migration, etc.), within our lifetimes, are appalling and devastating. All but impossible. Yesterday, the Guardian reported on more research that suggests we have little to no chance of keeping temperatures below +2c and that may see +4c by 2060: Little to no chance

2. The IEA have introduced a 'New Policies Scenario' which they think is a realistic forecast of long-term energy use, rather than their aspirational 450ppm C02 scenario (which they've pretty much abandoned) Cheap oil is over

This new scenario, if correct, will see average annual oil prices move over $100/barrel in the next decade. If a business as usual approach is taken, this will happen even sooner. When thinking of price, I am always reminded of this graph, which shows that when the oil price goes above around $85 in real terms, the US economy experiences recession soon after. Remember that global GDP and oil production correlate quite nicely. With that in mind, here's a paper that proposes a 1:1 ratio in production decline and GDP decline. The author anticipates a decline in production of 2-5%/year.

3. For the first time, the IEA explicitly address the issue of 'Peak Oil' - this is astonishing, given their attitude to it in the past. What's more astonishing, is that they agree with 'peak oilers' that the production of conventional crude oil peaked in 2006 and that since then, our requirement for liquid fuels has been made up by 'unconventional' sources, such as biofuels, deep water projects and tar sands. So the future of global oil production meeting anticipated demand rests on projects which are high emission, dangerous and very expensive. Recently, OPEC said they are happy with an oil price of up to $90/barrel. Last year, they were talking about $70. Oil production peaked in 2006.

The IEA now says that total liquid fuels including gas, is expected to peak by 2035. This seems optimistic to me, but let's hope they are right, because a transition from oil and gas to non-liquid fuels is at least a 20 year project requiring unprecedented global effort. See this and this

I say optimistic, because their forecast clearly depends on undeveloped and undiscovered oil fields but they fail to acknowledge that oil discoveries have been on a steady decline since the 1960s. Compare the two graphs on this page. The first is from the IEA's report. For a quick overview of the IEA's latest report, see this early post on The Oil Drum.

Some things to remember when reading IEA reports: they report to and are funded by the OECD, so their hands are tied to some extent. Last year a whistleblower leaked to the Guardian that they were fudging their figures under pressure from the US. Also, each year they seem to be carefully revealing how bad things are going to get. Peak Oil gets a section in the report this year for the first time, when only a couple of years ago, they completely refuted the idea. If an organisation like the IEA reported that the demand for liquid fuels would outstrip production in, say, five years, all hell would break loose, politically and economically. Their approach is, understandably, softly softly...

Cheers, Joss

Bryan Lovell's book, Challenged by Carbon. On Tuesday 19th October Louth Naturalists', Antiquarian and Literary Society presented a lecture by Dr Bryan Lovell: Challenged by Carbon – Geologists, the oil industry and climate change. Background to the lecture James writes his reaction to the evening: Last night (in Louth!) I had the opportunity to listen to an eminent Geologist and self confessed "Oil man" speak very frankly about the carbon problem that we have all created. The gentleman in question was Dr Bryan Lovell, the current president of the Geological society. It was an extraordinary and quite detailed explanation of how the study of rocks can provide evidence of the effect an increase of carbon had on the Earth's atmosphere 55 million years ago. Increase in global temperatures and acidification of the oceans were two of the major results of a dramatic increase in Co2. The telling statements for me were (these are not direct quotes) "Some environmentalists say that we are in the process of conducting a massive experiment with planet earth..this is not correct..we know precisely what will happen when carbon levels dramatically rise, you only have to look back in time to see the evidence.. a world not conducive to human life, that will take 200,000 years to recover. "I have, unwittingly, contributed to this enormous carbon problem over most of working life, I would like to believe that by bringing this unpalatable truth into wider knowledge my life will not have been completely wasted". Dr Lovell explained how the oil industry had a part to play in this by pushing back captured carbon into the voids vacated by the extracted oil and gas. He was sure that this was feasible...the real fly in the ointment? How do you capture the carbon? By coincidence E.On have announced they are not going ahead with building a new powerstation at Kingsnorth, in Kent. This was to have been the first new coal fired power station and would have needed to include the carbon capture and storage technology. Last night's talk has just confirmed to me that the only way we can avoid a catastrophe for future generations is for society to adopt a rapid change in behaviour. I know this seems unlikely too, but unless we all make essential changes to how we live and encourage others to follow suit we are all well and truly stuffed! Sleep tight. James. Souper Day As well as handing out cups of Garden Soup, from Jolley's Kitchen Stall in Louth Market Place, we had a presentation of a lovely slate sign that Max Griffin of Griffin Memorials has made for us to go at the entrance to the Community Food Garden. Thanks Max! Solar PV? We've just had a solar pv system fitted on their house by Ethical Solar, a Grimsby and Bristol based company. They've agreed to make a donation to Transition Town Louth for any system they install as a result of introductions from us. Please get in touch if you'd like to know more about the pssibilities. Jean and Biff Improving East Lindsey's Energy Self-reliance Ecotricity have submitted a planning application for a 1MW solar photo-voltaic array alongside their Fen Farm Windpark near Connisholme. Enertrag UK are proposing to build a windwarm with eight 3MW turbines to the south-east of Baumber, near Horncastle. A planning inquiry is to be held in October but there will be a Pre- Inquiry meeting on July 30, 2010 at East Lindsey District Council’s Manby offices at 10am. Details here. A description of the proposal can be found Ecotricity are proposing to add five more turbines to their Fen Farm site near Conisholme. Details can be found at their webstite and navigating to the Fen Farm II link. Their is clearly a great deal of opposition to both these developments by those who do not understand the threats that peak oil and global warming pose to our livelihoods in the short term and to our, and our children's, lives in the longer term future. Foremost in opposition to wind energy are our MEP Roger Helmer and our MP, Sir Peter Tapsell who is patron of the Baumber (anti) Wind Farm Action Group. Commmunities, Councils and Carbon What we can do if governments won't. Click here to read more and buy a copy. A talk by Alexis Rowell around the subject of his new book. It's very easy to fall into a vicious cycle of helplessness, denial and despair over climate change and peak oil. Central government is busy setting targets they know they will never have to meet. Individuals either do not understand the seriousness of the problems or are unclear as to what they can do. Local government can break the logjam. The idea that councils can play a significant role in saving the world is not sexy or fashionable, but the fact is they could be a big part of the solution. Local governments can think about the moral aspects as well as operational and business aspects of their communities; they have a duty of care to think about the future. "Communities, councils and carbon" includes current examples of best eco practice from local authorities across the UK and elsewhere. This book is designed to inform and inspire councils and councillors, as well as local environmental activists, community groups and Transition Initiatives. Local government can be a huge driver for positive change, but not on its own. Communities need to understand what they can reasonably (and unreasonably!) ask for from local councils, and they need to know exactly what levers they can pull. Dr David Fleming Our friend and inspiration, David Fleming, died peacefully in his sleep on the night of 28th/29th November, whilst visiting a friend in Amsterdam. Many of you will remember the wonderful talk he gave to our Transition Town group in August 2009. A summary of that talk is avalaible here. He returned in August 2010 when he joined our Transition beach party at Sutton-on-Sea. He will be especially missed by a Beth Barton and Beth Stratford, both of whom he met while visiting Louth and engaged to work with him on his life's project, his book Lean Logic. It is so nearly finished we hope to ensure that it will soon be published. Transition Town founder Rob Hopkins has posted a wonderful piece about David at Transition Culture. Shaun Chamberlain, who, inspired by David, wrote Transition Timeline, also worked with David on Lean Logic and will be central to seeing it to publication. He has written his thoughts at Dark Optimism. Wikipedia has a good summary of David's life and links to other sources. And, of course, there is David's own website, The Lean Economy Connection where his work on Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) is presented. TEQs are still the best mechanism available that addresses both peak oil and global warming. If only governments would adopt David's brainchild. At the heart of the Transition Town movment is building resilience and self reliance into local communities. It is based on the profound, perhaps frightening, understanding of David's words: “Localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative.” David Fleming (1940-2010) News and Events David Fleming discusses the working of an experimental rocket stove. August 2010. Trees East Lindsey People living in East Lindsey are being given the opportunity to comment on a special document by East Lindsey District Council that focuses on how protected trees and hedgerows and those on the Council’s land are managed and maintained. The new document (Trees East Lindsey Part 1 (PDF, 1408KB) and Trees East Lindsey Part 2 (PDF, 1092KB)), brings together existing policy, guidance and good practice in tree management. Environmental Policy Officer, David Pocklington, explained: “As well as being an important document for Council officers who deal with tree maintenance, Trees East Lindsey is a useful resource for anyone who would like to understand what sort of tree work is being carried out, the circumstances when it is necessary and why.” People can submit their views on the document, which will then be used to shape future versions to Trees@e-lindsey.gov.uk or by writing to Neighbourhoods, Street Scene, Tedder Hall, Manby Park, Manby, Louth, Lincs LN11 8UP. Transition Town Louth had a stall at The Victorian Market on Sunday 31st October in Louth Market Place. Lots of people had a go at guessing the weight of the courgette marrow. The lucky winner, Mark Haggis of North Thoresby, won a meal for two from Royston's Deli, almost correctly guessing the weight of 7.4kg or 16lbs 5oz. Viv Channing of Louth came so close a second place that we've decided to award a second prize of a bar of Duffy's chocolate in consolation. Commiserations to all who missed the mark but thanks for the £50 we raised. 10:10 What can I do? - Click here for 10 ways to reduce by 10% Could Louth be a Ten Ten Town? 10:10 unites every sector of British society behind one simple idea: that by working together we can achieve a 10% cut in the UK’s carbon emissions in 2010. 10:10 is the perfect opportunity to discover what’s possible when we work together. Let’s get started.

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